In what is expected to be a wide-open Third District congressional race, Paulsen and Madia have strengths and weaknesses, and lots of money

By John Molene

With less than 90 days to the Nov. 4 election, one of the most hotly contested congressional races in the country may be about to unfold right in Eden Prairie.

With the retirement of longtime moderate Republican Jim Ramstad, Minnesota’s Third Congressional District is considered a wide-open race this fall. And two distinct and appealing candidates are gearing up to take their campaign messages to the voters.

There’s no doubt Republican Erik Paulsen and Democrat Ashwin Madia have their political differences. One thing they might agree on, however, is the Third District congressional race is going to turn on economic issues.

So money – who has it, how they spend it – and how well their economic policies resonate with voters may very well be the difference between winning and losing this fall.

Madia, a political newcomer, knocked off state Sen. Terri Bonoff in the district DFL convention, after Bonoff was the early Democratic favorite to challenge Paulsen for the vacant Third District seat.

Paulsen, from Eden Prairie, is the designated heir to longtime Republican moderate Jim Ramstad, who has served the Third District since 1991.

The Third Congressional District is composed of a large chunk of Minneapolis’s northwest, western and southwest suburbs, including the cities of Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids, Maple Grove, Plymouth, Minnetonka, Edina, Bloomington and Eden Prairie. In congressional races, the district has consistently elected Republicans since electing Clark MacGregor in 1961, Bill Frenzel, who served 20 years, and then Ramstad.

Ramstad has been a popular politician, and routinely won the Third District with more than 60 percent of the vote. But the district has been trending decidedly less Republican in recent years. In 2004, for example, President George W. Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry by just 3 percent in the Third.

The nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report rates the Minnesota Third seat as one of just 10 “pure toss-up” races among the 435 house seats up for grabs this year.

Both Paulsen and Madia have adopted many centrist positions in their speeches, literature and Web sites, and it will be up to voters to determine the fault lines that separate the two.

Follow the money

With shifting demographics in the district, both the Republicans and Democrats have deemed it a key battleground in the upcoming election. And the money is flowing in.

In July, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee pledged support to Madia, announcing it has reserved $1.4 million in advertising in the district to support his candidacy.

According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Paulsen has raised just shy of $1.4 million so far, while Madia has raised more than $1.1 million.

Still, those numbers trail District 6 Republican incumbent Michele Bachman and District 1 Democratic Congressman Tim Walz, both of whom have raised around the $2 million each. Combined, however, perhaps no congressional race in Minnesota this season will draw as much money as the Third District.

As of July 30, Paulsen had a bigger war chest to fund the general campaign, with some $1.1 million cash on hand. Madia has a reported $738,148 cash on hand.

Paulsen raised a whopping $621,000 in the second quarter of this year, but Madia did even better, raising $693,000.

Both candidates’ percentage of funds raised from individual contributions as opposed to political action committee (PAC) contributions is roughly the same. Paulsen has reported 77 percent of his money raised comes from individuals, compared to 23 percent from PAC contributions. Madia’s money is 73 percent from individuals and 26 percent from PACs.

In the end, however, Paulsen said he doesn’t think the amount of money the candidates spend will be the determining factor.

“Especially voters in the Third District, in the end, will focus on the candidates and what they have to say,” Paulsen said.